They say that during the Cold War, there was a plan called Dulles Plan, developed by the CIA with the goal of destroying its main geopolitical opponent - the Soviet Union. Whether this plan worked, whether it existed at all, and whether it was authored by Allen Dulles - we don’t know for sure. However, the USSR did indeed collapse. Something similar is happening now with Russia - it is moving towards collapse, without any visible external cause. Or maybe there is a cause, and there is a plan?
Putin is an ambitious, powerful, and vain man. Therefore, for him, a loud short-term success may be more important than long-term stable development. This is the first introductory fact.
Secondly, the Russian Federation, with high oil prices, represents a serious player in the global market. Taking into account the foreign economic activity of Russian businesses and investments, the presence of nuclear weapons, and a huge territory, it can be confidently considered one of the main strategic opponents of the USA. Moreover, this opponent has great national ambitions and is very difficult to negotiate with.
In 2014, riots are organized, escalating into a state coup. Against the backdrop of the coup, tensions escalate in pro-Russian territories, especially in Crimea and Donetsk. Russia, led by Putin, sees these territories as easy and very attractive prey. In the shortest time, Crimea “returns home” and Putin’s popularity increases. This is the very short-term success that was bet on. Putin swallowed the bait.
The international reaction to the events in Crimea is clear - Russia is declared an aggressor country, and the fact of the change of power in Crimea is annexation, violating international principles. The first goal is achieved - Russia “officially” becomes an enemy of the USA, Europe, and the entire civilized world. It is time to move on to the second stage.
Economic sanctions are imposed against Russia and its leadership, fortunately, there is a formal reason for this - Crimea. Despite Putin’s apparent popular support, the stability of his position begins to sharply decline. His allies stop supporting him, because their foreign economic activities, and therefore their prosperity, are under threat.
Putin is caught in a trap. He cannot release Crimea and stop the war in eastern Ukraine because he will rapidly lose the popularity and respect of the people. However, he is increasingly pressured by his entourage, whose opinion he cannot ignore either. He ended up where he was driven by those who understood his ambition well and created the conditions for the unrest in Ukraine in 2014.
Apparently, according to the plan, the denouement should be a state coup in Russia, a change of power, and the collapse of the country into parts. Again, as in the history of the USSR, a serious opponent will disappear from the battlefield completely bloodlessly, destroying itself. Isn’t that worthy of admiration?
Translated by ChatGPT gpt-3.5-turbo/42 on 2024-04-20 at 14:34
