The main task of any state regime is survival. The main potential threat to this is always the people oppressed by this regime. The most active and determined representatives of the people, united around a common goal, are called the opposition. The transition of the opposition to decisive actions results in rallies, demonstrations, strikes, riots, and terrorist acts. Unsuccessful attempts are classified as a state coup and cruelly punished by the regime. Successful ones receive the proud name of Revolution and are celebrated. The new regime.
To avoid watching the celebration of the revolution anniversary on TV from the camera of the investigative isolation ward, the regime needs to keep the opposition under control. It is necessary not to allow them to transition to decisive actions. To do this, they can be pursued, punished, frightened, and destroyed. However, the martyrdom role of opposition revolutionaries only fuels their enthusiasm and attracts new supporters. Only a regime of strong dictatorship (Lukashenko, Kim Jong Un, Berdymukhamedov) can afford open repressive measures against the opposition.
For a weak regime taking the first steps towards true authoritarianism (Russia, Ukraine), it is more beneficial to use the method of fictitious opposition, which consists of the following. The brightest, loudest, and boldest figures are selected from the opposition movement, whose slogans are filled with hatred for the regime, but completely exclude any constructive criticism (such as “Putin is a thief” or “Poroshenko is the supreme profiteer”). These figures become the mouthpieces of the opposition (Navalny, Saakashvili). The regime minimally hinders them, just enough not to deprive them of their status as hero-revolutionaries (regularly arresting and releasing them).
Soon, the majority of those dissatisfied with the regime gather around these leaders. Over time, the percentage of those capable of meaningful and constructive revolutionary actions among those gathered begins to decline. Mainly due to the intensive influx of enthusiastic admirers of catchy and often vulgar slogans. In terms of quality, the composition of the opposition mass descends to the level of an ordinary citizen, completely incapable of causing any tangible harm to the regime.
Opposition leaders, being public figures, are entirely dependent on the opinions and desires of their audience. Being hostages of those they have gathered around them, they are forced to generate the informational product demanded by their opposition electorate, namely, public abuse directed at those in power. No matter how crude and offensive this opposition may sound, it is completely harmless to the regime, because those who are truly capable of carrying out a state coup will not follow their slogans. By the time of the triumph of the main opposition leaders, such people are simply not among their supporters.
The regime does not hinder the development of fictitious opposition, but on the contrary actively promotes it. The louder and cruder their slogans sound, the more incapacitated population they will gather around them, and the fewer really dangerous fighters against the regime will remain there. At the same time, a real revolution loses the chance to capture minds, because its voice sounds quieter and less convincing against the backdrop of categorical, bright, bold, and primitive slogans.
Russia has long been moving along this path. Currently, Ukraine is picking up this method.
Translated by ChatGPT gpt-3.5-turbo/42 on 2024-04-20 at 14:49
